Defining which uncertainties the company faces and cutting through the noise by separating them into those that matter and those that don’t.That’s because leadership has proactively prepared the company for a range of futures by: And the process shifts from an exercise defined by conditions at a discrete point in time to a cycle of “execute, monitor and adapt,” redirecting the company toward the best opportunities over time.Ĭompanies that mobilize quickly around the right choices aren’t somehow better at predicting the future. This leads to a clear and actionable portfolio of strategic actions that balance commitment with flexibility.

The most effective leadership teams focus on the vital few uncertainties that matter, understand the possible scenarios that could develop and identify the critical trigger points that signal a swing to one scenario or another-we call these signposts. In uncertainty, both the strategy process and the strategy itself need to change.

Even worse, these linear processes can commit a company to a single course of action, and it may be the wrong one. Companies using a traditional strategy process to cope with uncertainty may find themselves playing catch-up with more nimble competitors. There’s really only one thing we know about making projections: that they will be wrong. That’s often because traditional approaches to strategy-analyzing trends, making forecasts and committing to only the “best” course of action-aren’t calibrated for the high degree of instability many companies face. At a time when uncertainty and turbulence have come to characterize most global markets, a growing number of companies are struggling to avoid their own Kodak moments (see Figure 1).

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